Key Points

Despite a slowdown in the trend of syndromic and virological indicators in Week 5, the high level of indicators, as well as the increase in ICU admissions and the number of deaths observed in Occitanie, remain a cause for concern:

• In Week 4, COVID-19 syndromic surveillance indicators in primary care were declining at the regional level and stable in hospital settings.

• Regarding virological indicators, incidence rates were decreasing in most departments (with the exception of Aveyron, where they rose slightly) and remained at high levels across the entire region. Positivity rates were also decreasing, and testing rates were generally stable.

• Weekly numbers of new hospital admissions were decreasing in week 05, while those of admissions to intensive care units were increasing compared to the previous week. The number of reported cases in nursing homes was slightly decreasing over the past week; however, the number of cases among residents—and especially hospitalizations and deaths—was increasing.

• As of February 9, R-Effectif estimates for Occitanie were lower than the previous week and not significantly above 1 for the three data sources analyzed.

• Regarding mortality data, despite a decrease in the weekly number of deaths from all causes in week 04 at the regional level, excess deaths significantly higher than expected were estimated in several departments (Aude, Gard, Haute-Garonne, Pyrénées-Orientales, and Tarn). The number of hospital deaths remained stable at the regional level in week 05.

• In Occitanie and for week 05, the indicators appear to show a slowdown in viral spread for the first time in several weeks, although the level of circulation remains very high. Consequently, the favorable trend in these indicators should be interpreted with caution until it is confirmed in the coming weeks. The increase in admissions to intensive care units remains a cause for concern, both regarding the progression of severe cases of COVID-19 and the potential strain on the healthcare system.