Key Points

In Occitanie, the high and rising levels of virological indicators, along with the increase in hospitalizations for COVID-19, reflect both an increased risk of transmission within the population and a growing number of severe cases.

During Week 39, syndromic surveillance indicators for outpatient care were decreasing regionally compared to the previous week. In inpatient care, although emergency department visits remained stable (Oscour® network), conventional hospitalizations for COVID-19 and admissions to intensive care units continued to rise. Indicators from ESMS surveillance were decreasing compared to the previous two weeks (following the sharp increase observed in week 37), regardless of the type of facility considered.

Indicators of viral circulation in the general population were rising and at high levels in most departments in the region: positivity rates were above 5% in 12 of the 13 departments and above 10% in Haute-Garonne; standardized incidence rates exceeded 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in certain departments (Ariège, Gard, Haute-Garonne, and Tarn), and 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the others. People aged 20–30 remained the most affected age group, but positivity rates were rising overall among adults aged 30 to 80.

A focus on the time lags in reporting virological data illustrates the importance of taking this into account when interpreting virological indicators.

The weekly number of clusters reported in the region was decreasing compared to last week; however, this indicator is now underestimated due to the prioritization of clusters to be investigated and the multiple intertwined situations.

Ultimately, the high and rising levels of virological indicators, as well as the increase in hospitalizations for COVID-19, reflect, on the one hand, an increased risk of transmission in the population and, on the other, a growing number of severe cases. Certain areas of the region are currently being hit harder (notably the Toulouse metropolitan area).

As of 1:00 PM on September 30, 2020, given the evolution of the epidemic, 12 departments in the region are classified as having a high vulnerability level, with only Lot remaining at moderate vulnerability (see the vulnerability map on the Santé publique France website). Furthermore, as of September 28, 2020, 11 departments in the region were still classified as active transmission zones, with Haute-Garonne and Hérault in the enhanced alert zone.