Key Points

A trend toward stabilization in the incidence rate in Gironde, which needs to be confirmed in the coming weeks

During week 37, for the first time in over a month, the overall SARS-CoV-2 incidence rate in Nouvelle-Aquitaine has stabilized. However, this trend should be interpreted with caution for several reasons. First, the incidence rate across the entire region is heavily influenced by that observed in Gironde, where a decrease has indeed been noted. Conversely, in certain departments, a sharp increase continues to be observed (Landes, Corrèze, Vienne, Charente, and Pyrénées-Atlantiques). Furthermore, there is currently a growing delay between the dates of Covid-19 RT-PCR testing and the dates when results are uploaded to the SI-DEP system, a phenomenon that could be linked to the saturation of testing laboratories. The most recent incidence rates should therefore be interpreted with great caution, and the apparent stabilization of the incidence rate in Gironde does not necessarily mean that viral circulation has stopped intensifying. This trend must therefore be confirmed in the coming weeks.

Viral circulation is decreasing among young adults but increasing among older adults

For several weeks, young adults have stood out due to an exponential increase in the incidence rate, while, conversely, older adults have been less affected by the intensification of viral circulation. In week 37, this trend appears to be reversing, with a decrease in incidence rates among young adults but a continued increase in other age groups, particularly among those aged
75 and older, where incidence has doubled in one week.

Impact on hospital activity

Alongside the rise in incidence rates observed among the elderly, there has been a gradual increase in Covid-19-related hospital activity, with, in week 37, an increase in emergency room visits, twice as many new hospitalizations as the previous week, and an increase in intensive care admissions. If the incidence rate continues to rise among the elderly, the impact on hospitalizations will also become increasingly significant.

An action plan to protect the most vulnerable in Gironde

In response to the concerning surge in viral circulation observed over the past several weeks, the Gironde Prefecture presented an action plan on September 14, developed in collaboration with the Nouvelle-Aquitaine Regional Health Agency (ARS) in consultation with the City of Bordeaux, the Bordeaux Metropolitan Area, and the University Hospital. In addition to measures concerning the healthcare system aimed at ensuring hospital capacity and strengthening and regulating testing capacity, numerous
measures aimed at slowing viral circulation—particularly by limiting public gatherings and risky behaviors—have been announced. In the current context, where viral circulation among the elderly is increasing, with an impact on hospital activity, it is essential that the entire population unite around this goal of reducing viral circulation, which can only be achieved
through our collective efforts.