Key Points

A general and rapid acceleration in epidemiological indicators In week 40, the regional standardized incidence rate reached 200 cases per 100
,000 residents of the Île-de-France region. This increase of nearly 16%, despite a stabilization in the number of tests conducted, points to an intensifying viral circulation.

This increase affects all departments, with Paris reaching 282 cases per 100,000 residents. The positivity rate continues to rise sharply, reaching 13.6% of tests conducted in the region. All departments have a positivity rate above 11%. This increase is clear, though it is not possible to distinguish the portion attributable to actual viral circulation from the effect of targeting priority populations. Indeed, recommendations to prioritize testing for the most at-risk populations can only partially explain this increase. A comparison of positivity rates between tested individuals with symptoms (28%) and those tested without symptoms (8%), against the backdrop of strained testing capacity, reflects this testing prioritization strategy.

Clusters are primarily identified in educational settings and workplaces, but the proportion of healthcare facilities has increased significantly this week, rising from 14.3% to 17.9%. These facilities constitute the largest group, along with long-term care facilities for people with disabilities, among high-risk clusters. These clusters involve populations requiring special attention due to their vulnerability or their role as caregivers. Between May 22 and September 30, 280 mobile testing units were set up across all 8 departments in the region. The deployment of these tent-style testing centers made it possible to target specific geographic areas with the aim of addressing inequalities in access to care in the Île-de-France region. These initial tents enabled the performance of 95,395 RT-PCR tests
and the identification of 859 confirmed cases.

At the hospital level, the proportion of emergency room visits for suspected COVID-19 that subsequently lead to hospitalization has been rising steadily for the past four weeks, increasing from 16% in Week 37 to 31% in Week 40. New hospital admissions rose by 5% in Week 40 compared to the previous week, while intensive care admissions and hospital deaths continued their rapid increase by 16% and 22%, respectively, in Week 40.

Regarding all-cause mortality surveillance: available data indicate a moderate but significant excess mortality in week 38 (September 14–20). The excess mortality is concentrated primarily among people over 65 years of age.