COVID-19: Epidemiological Update for the Grand Est Region as of October 1, 2020

Key Points

In Week 39 of 2020 (September 21–27), and for the first time since Week 32, testing activity decreased compared to the previous week, with 91,948 RT-PCR tests performed. The number of new biologically confirmed cases is also decreasing, reaching 2,186 this week (compared to 2,581 the previous week). However, this number has tripled since the lifting of lockdown measures (616 new infections were recorded in week 21 of 2020). Despite a regional positivity rate that continues to rise to 3.1% (compared to 2.7% in week 38 of 2020), the regional incidence rate now stands at 39.7 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (compared to 46.9 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in week 38 of 2020). Although significantly higher, the national incidence rate shows the same downward trend, with 107.3 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants this week (compared to 111.1 in week 38). Three-quarters (72%) of new cases identified in week 39 of 2020 are under 50 years of age (42% are aged 20–39), 35% report being asymptomatic, and 55% symptomatic (information is not available for 10.6% of new cases). Due to the implementation of new prioritization rules for testing and the gradual increase in the time required to consolidate test data, the number of new cases may be underestimated.

In week 39 of 2020, viral circulation decreased in 9 departments in the region: the Ardennes (33.9 per 100,000 inhabitants), the Marne (69.4 per 100,000 inhabitants), Haute-Marne (23.6 per 100,000 inhabitants), Meuse (24.8 per 100,000 inhabitants), Meurthe-et-Moselle (42.3 per 100,000 inhabitants), Moselle (29.7 per 100,000 inhabitants), Bas-Rhin (52.5 per 100,000 inhabitants), Haut-Rhin (28.7 per 100,000 inhabitants), and Vosges (19.2 per 100,000 inhabitants). The incidence rate is rising in Aube (38.7 per 100,000 inhabitants), but the data is currently being consolidated. The incidence rate exceeds the vigilance threshold (10 per 100,000 inhabitants) in all departments and exceeds the alert threshold (50 per 100,000 inhabitants) in the Marne and Bas-Rhin. Despite a relative decline—which remains to be confirmed in the coming days—in viral circulation in the region, it is nevertheless still imperative to adhere to preventive measures, particularly maintaining a distance of at least one meter between people and avoiding handshakes and hugs, including among young adults and in private settings.

The rate of in-person and telemedicine consultations for acute respiratory infections (ARI) reported by the Sentinelles network continues to decline (57 per 100,000 inhabitants in week 39 of 2020 compared to 117 per 100,000 inhabitants in week 38 of 2020). The number of emergency room visits for suspected COVID-19 at the region’s healthcare facilities and the number of consultations for suspected COVID-19 at the region’s five SOS Médecins associations are down compared to the previous week.

In week 39 of 2020, the number of new hospitalizations remained stable compared to the previous week. The number of new admissions to intensive care units has increased slightly compared to week 38 of 2020. While the current profile of new cases (tending to be younger and without major clinical symptoms) explains the limited impact of the increase in their numbers on the healthcare system, they nonetheless contribute to the spread of the virus.

As of September 30, 240 clusters or clusters of cases have been identified in the region since May 11, of which 117 (+7 compared to the previous week) are currently under investigation. No uncontrolled occurrence of new cases outside the community and linked to these clusters has been reported.

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