Key Points

In week 47 of 2020 (November 16–22), the decline that began in week 45 of 2020 accelerated, with 130,550 RT-PCR tests performed (compared to 159,450 in week 46 of 2020). The number of new biologically confirmed cases is also down, with 9,733 cases (compared to 14,197 the previous week). This number remains, however, 16 times higher than at the start of the reopening (616 new infections in week 21 of 2020). It does not include new positive cases detected by antigen testing (approximately 800 people in week 47 of 2020 in the Grand Est region), which are currently being integrated into SIDEP. The incidence rate has fallen sharply compared to week 46 of 2020 and now stands at 176.6 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (compared to 257.4 the previous week). It is now higher than the national incidence rate, which stands at 151.3 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (compared to 250.5 in week 46 of 2020) and has fallen below the maximum alert threshold of 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The regional positivity rate has decreased this week and now stands at 13.2%, compared to 15.1% in week 46 of 2020. Viral circulation remains active and exceeds 50 new cases per 100,000 in all age groups. Just under two-thirds (56.4%) of new cases tested in week 47 of 2020 are under 50 years old, and 25% are between 20 and 39 years old (these figures were 78% and 46%, respectively, in early September). More than one-third (44%) report being asymptomatic and 42.5% symptomatic (information is not available for 13.5% of new cases), whereas symptomatic cases accounted for 38% in early September.

In week 47 of 2020, viral circulation continued to decline, with a decrease in incidence rates across all departments in the region: the Ardennes (274 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Aube (188 per 100,000 inhabitants), Marne (106 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Haute-Marne (194 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Meurthe-et-Moselle (162 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Meuse (170 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Moselle (200 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Bas-Rhin (174 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Haut-Rhin (181 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), and Vosges (162 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). Furthermore, the incidence rate exceeds the maximum alert threshold only in the Ardennes (compared to 5 departments in week 46 of 2020).

Pressure on the healthcare system remains high and concerning, but the decline is now beginning. The number of consultations for suspected Covid-19 at the region’s five SOS Médecins associations is down (-41%). The number of emergency room visits for suspected Covid-19 at the region’s emergency facilities is also declining (-32%).

The number of new hospitalizations and the number of new admissions to intensive care units for COVID-19 have decreased for the first time compared to week 46 of 2020 (down 17% and 18%, respectively). In week 47 of 2020, Covid-19 activity in the region’s emergency departments and hospital wards returned to the level observed at the end of April, following the first lockdown. The number of Covid-19 deaths in healthcare facilities has risen slightly (236 deaths compared to 218 the previous week).

As of November 26, 687 clusters or outbreaks of grouped cases had been identified in the region since October 1, of which 496 are under investigation or under control.

After three weeks of lockdown and despite a definite slowdown in viral circulation in the region, the level of viral circulation remains very high, regardless of location or age group. While we await a vaccine, adherence to individual preventive measures and limiting contacts are the only effective ways to curb the epidemic. Adherence to these individual measures by everyone, under all circumstances, coupled with collective measures, is essential to curb this second wave and relieve pressure on the healthcare system. To protect yourself and others, it is still vital to maintain a distance of at least one meter between people, ventilate rooms for at least 10 minutes twice a day, wear a mask when recommended, avoid handshakes and hugs—even with loved ones—and follow standard preventive measures.