Key Points

In week 46 of 2020 (November 9–15), the decline that began in week 45 of 2020 accelerated, with 159,450 RT-PCR tests performed (compared to 208,254 in week 45 of 2020). The number of new biologically confirmed cases is also down, with 14,187 cases (compared to 23,576 the previous week). This number remains, however, 23 times higher than at the start of the reopening (616 new infections in Week 21 of 2020). The incidence rate has fallen sharply compared to week 45 of 2020 and now stands at 257.4 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (compared to 427.7 the previous week). It is now higher than the national incidence rate, which stands at 248.2 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (compared to 431.2 in week 45 of 2020) and has fallen below the maximum alert threshold of 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The regional positivity rate has decreased this week and now stands at 15%, compared to 17.1% in week 45 of 2020. Viral circulation continues to affect all age groups. Just under two-thirds (56%) of new cases tested in week 46 of 2020 are under 50 years old, and 26% are between 20 and 39 years old (these figures were 78% and 46%, respectively, in early September). More than one-third (42%) report being asymptomatic and 46% symptomatic (information is not available for 12% of new cases), whereas symptomatic cases accounted for 38% in early September.

In week 46 of 2020, viral circulation continued to decline, with a decrease in incidence rates across all departments in the region: the Ardennes (366 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Aube (236 per 100,000 inhabitants), Marne (176 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Haute-Marne (431 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Meurthe-et-Moselle (223 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Meuse (206 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Moselle (283 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Bas-Rhin (249 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Haut-Rhin (259 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), and Vosges (284 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). Nevertheless, the incidence rate still exceeds the maximum alert threshold in 5 of the region’s 10 departments (compared to 10 in week 45 of 2020).

Pressure on the healthcare system remains high and concerning, though there are encouraging signs. The number of consultations for suspected Covid-19 at the region’s five SOS Médecins associations is down (-9%). The number of emergency room visits for suspected COVID-19 in the region’s emergency facilities is beginning to decline slightly (-2%). With 304 emergency room visits over the first three days, COVID-19 activity in emergency facilities for week 47 of 2020 could continue to decline.

However, the number of new hospitalizations and the number of new admissions to intensive care units for Covid-19 continue to rise compared to week 45 of 2020 (up 18% and 19%, respectively). In week 46 of 2020, COVID-19 activity in the region’s emergency departments and hospital wards returned to the level observed at the end of April, following the first lockdown. The number of COVID-19 deaths in healthcare facilities is also rising (218 deaths compared to 137 the previous week).

As of November 11, 726 clusters or outbreaks of grouped cases had been identified in the region since May 11, of which 462 (+44 compared to the previous week) are under investigation or under control.

After two weeks of lockdown and despite a definite slowdown in viral circulation in the region, the level of viral circulation remains very high, regardless of location or age group. While we await a vaccine, adherence to individual preventive measures and limiting contact are the only effective ways to curb the epidemic. Adherence to these individual measures by everyone, under all circumstances, coupled with collective measures, is essential to curb this second wave and relieve pressure on the healthcare system. To protect yourself and others, it is still vital to maintain a distance of at least one meter between people, ventilate rooms for at least 10 minutes twice a day, wear a mask when recommended, avoid handshakes and hugs—even with loved ones—and follow standard preventive measures.