Key Points

• After a decline in the number of new infections, the positivity rate, and the incidence rate in the region during the first four weeks of the second lockdown, the number of positive cases is rising again (7,962 cases in week 49 of 2020 compared to 7,500 in week 48 of 2020). The number of people tested, however, has fallen slightly (108,770 people in week 49 of 2020 compared to 112,790 in week 48 of 2020). The incidence rate is also rising again (144.5 cases per 100,000 residents compared to 136.1 in week 48 of 2020). It remains higher than the national incidence rate (107 new cases per 100,000 residents). The regional positivity rate is also rising, now standing at 7.3% (compared to 6.6% in week 48 of 2020).

• Week 49 of 2020 is thus marked by a concerning trend in the epidemic in the region, where viral circulation remains above the threshold for active virus circulation, set at 50 new cases per 100,000, across all age groups (with the exception of those under 10 years of age; however, since younger children are tested less frequently, it is possible that the incidence is underestimated). Just over half (53.8%) of new cases tested in week 49 of 2020 are under 50 years of age, and 26.3% are between 20 and 39 years old.

• In week 49 of 2020, viral circulation is on the rise in four departments: Haute-Marne (170 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Meurthe-et-Moselle (163 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Meuse (182 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), and Vosges (196 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). It remains stable, but at a high level, in four departments: the Ardennes (229 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Moselle (163 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Bas-Rhin (116 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), and Haut-Rhin (142 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). The downward trend is now only observed in the departments of Aube (121 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) and Marne (68 cases per 100,000 inhabitants).

• Pressure on the healthcare system remains high, concerning, and shows no signs of easing in week 49 of 2020. The number of consultations for suspected COVID-19 at the region’s five SOS Médecins associations is on the rise (+21%), and this trend is observed across all associations. The number of emergency room visits for suspected COVID-19 in the region’s emergency facilities remains stable. However, the trend varies by department, with an increase in COVID-19 activity observed in the Vosges, and to a lesser extent in the Moselle and Bas-Rhin.

• The number of new hospitalizations (n=1,033) is no longer decreasing and remains stable compared to the previous week. Only the number of new admissions to intensive care units for COVID-19 (n=99) has decreased compared to the previous week (-22%). The weekly number of Covid-19-related deaths in healthcare facilities is stable (n=246) compared to week 48 of 2020. Since September 1, 7,521 confirmed or probable cases of Covid-19 have been reported among residents and 4,082 among staff. Long-term care facilities for the elderly are the hardest hit by the pandemic, accounting for 75% (5,639) of these cases among residents and 66% (2,675) among staff.

• As of December 9, 799 clusters or outbreaks have been identified in the region since October 1, of which 580 are currently under investigation or have been contained.

• After four weeks of lockdown and a decline in the number of new infections during the first few weeks, the level of viral circulation remains very high across all regions and age groups, and the downward trend has stalled. The current trajectory of the epidemic suggests a high risk of a resurgence and a renewed increase in SARS-CoV-2 circulation in France in the coming weeks. These unfavorable developments call for the utmost vigilance, particularly in the context of the year-end holidays. While we await a vaccine, adherence to individual preventive measures and limiting contact are the only effective ways to curb the epidemic. Compliance with these individual measures by everyone, under all circumstances, coupled with collective measures, is essential to halt this second wave and relieve pressure on the healthcare system. To protect yourself and others, it is still vital to maintain a distance of at least one meter between people, ventilate rooms for at least 10 minutes twice a day, wear a mask when recommended, avoid handshakes and hugs—even with loved ones—and follow standard preventive measures.