Key Points

With more than 20,000 new confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region during week 41 (October 5–11, 2020), COVID-19 epidemiological indicators are rising rapidly—the sharpest increase since the lifting of lockdown measures—and are now having a significant impact on hospital capacity.

The incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections rose by 77% in week 41 (+14% between weeks 39 and 40), while the testing rate increased again, albeit to a lesser extent (+25% in week 41). The positivity rate continues to rise, reaching 15% in week 41 (10.6% in week 40). This increase in incidence affects all age groups, particularly those over 75. All departments and metropolitan areas in the region are recording a rapid rise in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections. These trends can be partially explained by the strategy of targeting symptomatic patients, whose proportion has increased, but are also linked to a real increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission, as evidenced by the impact on hospitals and the rise in other epidemiological indicators such as SOS Médecins calls and the rate of consultations with doctors in the Sentinelles Network.

Indeed, emergency department visits rose by nearly 50% in week 41. More than 800 new hospitalizations for COVID-19 occurred in week 41 in the region, representing a 41% increase, driven primarily by hospitals in the Loire, Isère, and Rhône departments. The impact on intensive care units is now significant, although the increase in this type of hospitalization is smaller (+15% in week 41). The number of hospital deaths is rising slightly (+6%).

The situation in nursing homes and other medical-social facilities is becoming very concerning, with a still-high number of reported clusters, but above all, a sharp rise in reports and confirmed cases among residents and staff in week 41. Clusters in schools and universities—with a high average number of cases per cluster—as well as in healthcare facilities and extended family settings, remain numerous.

At the metropolitan level, the ARA region has the highest incidence rate after Île-de-France and ranks third in terms of hospitalization incidence rate, following Île-de-France and the PACA region. At the regional level, the Loire, Rhône, and Isère departments remain the most affected by the epidemic. They are among the metropolitan departments with the highest incidence rates and/or positivity rates. These three departments also have high hospitalization incidence rates. Finally, moderate excess mortality from all causes has been observed since week 38 across the region, as well as in the Rhône and Loire departments, depending on the week.

Against this backdrop of a sharp rise in the epidemic, behavioral prevention measures remain essential. Adherence to preventive measures—including mask-wearing, physical distancing, and hygiene (handwashing)—must be strictly enforced, even among those who are less vulnerable, as they contribute to the spread of the virus to more vulnerable individuals (the elderly, those with underlying health conditions) who are at the highest risk of complications or severe forms of COVID-19.