Key Points

In Week 50 (December 7–13, 2020), following a steady decline since early November, the number of new SARS-CoV-2 infections is rising again in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (+4%), alongside an increase in testing (+15% in tests performed) as the end-of-year holidays approach. While the positivity rate (9%) at the regional level is still declining (-1 percentage point) compared to Week 49, it is rising again in certain departments (Allier, Cantal, and Isère). Beyond a mechanical effect linked to increased testing, the rise in virological indicators (incidence rate and positivity rate) could also reflect a localized resurgence of viral circulation. With 166 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the incidence rate in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes remains among the highest in France, following the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (210/100,000) and Grand-Est (185/100,000) regions.

At this stage, the rise in virological indicators has not led to an increase in COVID-19 consultations in private practice. Data from the SOS Médecins associations and the Sentinelles network remain stable. Visits to emergency rooms for suspected COVID-19 decreased by 17% in week 50.

The decline in the number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 is slow. On December 16, there were still 4,431 people hospitalized, including 480 in intensive care. The number of new hospitalizations is decreasing slightly (-17%), and for the first time since early November, the number of new intensive care admissions is beginning to stabilize (-0.5%). While they are decreasing or stabilizing in most departments, ICU admissions are increasing in the Rhône and Savoie. The weekly hospitalization rate for COVID-19 patients in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (16.3/100,000) is higher than the national rate (12.8/100,000). At the departmental level, the highest rates are found in Allier (29/100,000), Savoie (28/100,000), and Haute-Loire (23/100,000).

The number of new COVID-19-related deaths is decreasing in healthcare facilities (-18%) and long-term care facilities (-10%), but remains high in week 50. In week 49, a significant excess mortality at a very high level compared to expected mortality was observed in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes for all age groups and among those aged 65 and older. This excess mortality has been detected since mid-October, marking the 8th consecutive week.

The current trajectory of the epidemic as we approach the holidays and year-end celebrations, and in the context of the easing of lockdown measures, calls for the utmost vigilance to prevent an epidemic surge. It is important to remember that preventive measures and social distancing remain essential, particularly in light of the family gatherings expected during the end-of-year holidays, in order to protect those most vulnerable to COVID-19.