Application of the capture-recapture method to fire victims who died after being transferred to a hospital, mainland France, 2007

In France, epidemiological surveillance of fire-related deaths is primarily based on three data sources: mortality data from the Center for Epidemiology on Causes of Death (CépiDc) (476 accidental deaths in 2008), hospitalization data from the Medical Information Systems Program (PMSI) (194 deaths in hospitals in 2008), and reports from fire departments (378 deaths in 2008). The objective was to estimate the number of fire-related deaths in hospitals using the capture-recapture method. The capture-recapture method allows for population estimates based on sources with partially overlapping information. The principles and conditions of the capture-recapture method were taken into account. It was applied to two sources: data from the CépiDc and the PMSI, as the fire department data were not sufficiently homogeneous to be cross-referenced with the others. The study was therefore restricted to deaths in hospitals. The matching variables for identifying common cases were the month of death, age, sex, and the department where the death occurred. The method estimated the number of fire-related deaths in hospitals in metropolitan France in 2007 at 252 (95% CI = [134–370]). The completeness of the two combined sources was 97% (85% for CépiDc and 79% for PMSI). The conditions for applying the capture-recapture method were discussed: true cases, independence of sources, homogeneity of the capture, closed population, and the same time period and geographic area. The capture-recapture method can be applied annually. The overall objective of this approach is to produce validated and recognized estimates, by date, sex, age, and region, year after year, of the number of fire-related deaths in metropolitan France. It will help measure the effectiveness of regulatory measures such as those mandating the installation of automatic stand-alone smoke detectors by 2015 or requiring the tobacco industry to produce cigarettes with low flammability. (R.A.)

Author(s): Lasbeur L, Rigou A, Thelot B

Publishing year: 2012

Pages: 26 p.

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